Methodology
How an Outlier Weekly issue is built. One subject. The numbers in the open. A conclusion a reader can check.
What an issue is
Each issue takes one subject. The subject can be a metal, a license, a listing, a lab, a ticket price, or a product the operator ships. Most weeks the subject is investing or AI. Some weeks it is a market or a tool that sits next to that desk.
The letter shows the numbers that decide the write-up. It says where the public story and those numbers disagree. It ends with one conclusion: a position, a pass, or a product fact.
How an issue is built
- Pick one subject and name it in the title.
- Write the numbers that matter: a price, a license, a displayed odds line, or a dated fact.
- Say where the public story and those numbers disagree.
- End with one conclusion.
- Point at the hub on this site when the subject has one.
If this page and a letter disagree, the letter wins. The letter is dated. This page is the standing description.
Where this started
The letter launched in May 2026 on rare-event contracts. Issue 1 and Issue 2 each priced one Polymarket or Kalshi market with three formulas: a Poisson base rate, a Shannon / KL information gap, and a Taleb fat-tail size. Those issues used a 40 / 35 / 25 weighting. The inputs, the math, and the call stayed in the letter.
That system is the origin of the desk. Later letters keep the same habit — one subject, numbers in the open. A later letter does not have to be a prediction-market contract. The May weights belong to those first issues. A tungsten note, a parlay note, or a product note states its own numbers.
The formula write-up, with the worked example, stays on the public methodology mirror: cemini23.github.io/outlier-weekly-methodology. Read that page as the record of the first system. Issue 1 and Issue 2 are the dated applications.
What this page is not
- Not a black box. The numbers an issue uses are in the letter.
- Not a guarantee. A number that disagrees with the crowd can be wrong. The letters record both outcomes.
- Not investment advice. The letters are research and commentary, not a solicitation to buy, sell, or bet.
Common questions
How often does Outlier Weekly publish?
One letter a week. Every issue publishes on Substack, and the archive lists them in order, newest first. Each letter is dated, and each hub page on this site names the issue it describes and links to the canonical copy.
Does it cost anything to read?
No. The letters are free to read on Substack, and the hub pages on this site are free too. A free subscribe sends new issues to your inbox, and the archive stays open to anyone.
Who writes it?
Outlier Weekly is written by Cemini23. The letters publish on Substack. The hub pages on this site describe what each letter found and where to read it. They do not reprint the letter, and they do not carry a live price.
Is this investment advice?
No. The letters and these pages are research and commentary. They are not a solicitation to buy, sell, or bet, and nothing here is a recommendation. The decision to act on any number stays with the reader.
How is an issue different from a newsletter roundup?
An issue takes one subject and names it in the title. It shows the numbers that decide the write-up, says where the public story and those numbers disagree, and ends with one conclusion: a position, a pass, or a product fact. A roundup covers many items in one send.